Progress Blog Post 1

The population of Venice! The interesting story will be reconstructed from various population data and events that happened far in the past. To be able to refresh your mind and to remember our project, in this post we will present you how we managed to collect the data which is necessary for our project. According to the milestones that we suggested in previous semester, first two weeks were dedicated to data acquisition and third week to implementation of mathematical predictions. During last period we have acquired significant amount of data regarding Venice population with generous help of few humanities professors from Serbia.

In first semester we had a lot of difficulties finding population data in period before 1871, but we have been searching for different sources and our efforts were fruitful. From the beginning the goal was to predict population from the 16th century until 1871 for every decade by different mathematical models without data from the era before 1871. Since we have acquired this data, and it will be used for a comparison model to our predictions.

Acquired data from different sources, especially the most relevant one are presented in following tables and charts. First group is dedicated to period before 1797, then there is gap of 74 years, and after we have second group about population from 1871 until 1985.

Table1. Population of Venice before 1871
Table1. Population of Venice before 1871
Figure 1. Representation of table 1
Figure 1. Representation of Table 1
Table 2. Population of Venice after 1871
Table 2. Population of Venice after 1871
Figure 2. Representation of Table 2
Figure 2. Representation of Table 2

The data above is extracted from two sources and differences between them are neglectable (Bek, 1998) and (Rosina & Rossi, 2000). This has confirmed relevance of collected data. In other various sources acquired data is only related to specific periods. In one of the sources there is information that in 1500 the population of Venice is around 120000 and in 1570 is approximately 190000 people (Lane, 2007). Later on, we found that population of Venice in 1563 equals to 168627 people (IX knjiga Povijesti, 2008). The last source that we found gave us an insight into population of Venice in 1630 it was 150000 (Linderman, 1999). The very important is that all data from last mentioned books are consistent with main two sources.

In our predictions we will to take into account various historic events that have greatly influenced on population, such as two fire accidents in 1574 and 1577, two dreadful plague periods between 1575-1577 and 1630-1631. We expect that wars between Republic of Venice and Ottoman Empire in two occasions also had an effect on the population. First when it happened was in 1570-1573, and the second one in 1714-1718. As well, in next few weeks we will more investigate specific events from the past that were influencing the population and start inspecting different mathematical models to check which of used approaches are the best ones for population predictions.

Bek, K. (1998). Istorija Venecije. Zemun: Plato.
IX knjiga Povijesti. (2008). Zagreb: Biblioteka Jutarnjeg lista.
Lane, F. C. (2007). Povijest Mletacke Republike. Zagreb.
Linderman, M. (1999). Medicine and Society in Early Modern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rosina, A., & Rossi, F. (2000). La popolazione di Venezia, 1633-1797: una ricostruzione delle dinamiche evolutive. Padova.